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Prediction for CME (2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-08-12T15:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9089/-1
CME Note: CME associated with prominence eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 13:42Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-08-15T07:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-16T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Aug 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2015

            Aug 14     Aug 15     Aug 16
00-03UT        1          2          2     
03-06UT        1          1          2     
06-09UT        1          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          1          5 (G1)
15-18UT        1          1          4     
18-21UT        2          2          4     
21-00UT        2          2          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (16
Aug) due to the arrival of the 12 Aug CME and a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole.
Lead Time: 40.38 hour(s)
Difference: -19.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-08-13T15:20Z
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